1927-1933

Ok, am terminat cu festivismele de sarbatori si e timpul sa revenim la lucruri serioase. Am gasit pe urmatorul site un rezumat impresionant al depresiunii din anii 30: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001.html.

Incerc sa fac traducerea si adaptarea cat mai potrivita pentru textul original.

1. Noi nu vom mai avea o criza economica in timpul nostru.

"We will not have any more crashes in our time." - John Maynard Keynes in 1927

2. Nu pot decat sa dezaprob orice afirmatie ca traim un paradis imaginar si ca prosperitatea din aceasta tara trebuie sa scada si sa regreseze in viitorul apropiat.

"I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future." - E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928

Prosperitatea noastra permanenta nu va avea intrerupere.

"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity." - Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928

3. Niciodata congresul SUA, intrunit pentru a monitoriza starea natiunii, nu a gasit prospecte mai bune decat avem noi acum. Pe plan intern liniste si pace si un nivel record de prosperitate. Pe plan extern e pace si armonie bazat pe intelegere reciproca.

"No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment...and the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is peace, the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding." - Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928

4. Poate ca exista o recesiune in pretul actiunilor, dar nimic de dimensiunea unui crash.
"There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash." - Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929

5. Pretul actiunilor a atins ce pare a fi un platou inalt permanent. Nu cred ca vom avea in curand sau vreodata o scadere de 50 sau 60 de puncte fata de nivelul actual, asa cum s-a prezis. Ma astept sa vad piata de actiuni mai sus peste cateva luni.

"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."

- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929

Crash-ul nu va avea mare efect asupra afacerilor.

"This crash is not going to have much effect on business." - Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929

Nu vom avea o repetare a caderii de ieri... Nu cred ca vom mai avea un declin comparabil.

"There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday... I have no fear of another comparable decline." - Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable Trust Company), quoted in NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929

Consideram ca Wall Street este fundamental solid si ca oamenii care isi pot permite sa cumpere actiuni bune sa o faca la aceste preturi ieftine.

"We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices." - Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929

6. Acum e momentul sa cumparam actiuni. Sa ne aducem aminte vorbele defunctului J. P. Morgan ca cine isi vinde actiunile in America va da faliment. Peste cateva zile va fi o panica a celor care au vandut decat a celor care au cumparat. Multe din preturile scazute cauzate de vanzari isterice nu vor mai fi atinse multi ani de acum in colo.

"This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years." - R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929

Cine cumpara acum obligatiuni solide nu va regreta.
"Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted" - E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929

Cativa oameni inteligenti cumpara acum actiuni. Daca nu vom avea o panica, si nimeni nu crede asta, actiunile sunt acum la minimum.

"Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic -- which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom."  - R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929

7. Declinul este in valorile scriptice nu in bunuri si servicii reale. America este acum in al 8-lea an de prosperitate definita comercial. Celelalte perioade de crestere economica din America au avut in medie 11 ani. Deci mai avem inca 3 ani pana apar scaderi.

"The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services...America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin." - Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929

Isteria a disparut de pe Wall Street.

"Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street." - The Times of London, November 2, 1929

Crash-ul de pe Wall Street nu inseamna ca va duce la o depresiune generala sau serioasa. De 6 ani companiile Americane si-au distras atentia, energia si resursele catre jocul speculativ... Acum aceasta aventura irelevanta, straina si periculoasa s-a terminat. Companiile s-au intors acasa, la treburile lor, dovedite, solide si mai puternice financiar ca niciodata.

"The Wall Street crash doesn't mean that there will be any general or serious business depression... For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before." - Business Week, November 2, 1929

In ciuda severitatii, credem ca scaderea preturilor actiunilor se va dovedi o miscare intermediara si nu precursoare a unei depresiuni economice ce va aduce viitoare lichidari prelungite.

"...despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation..." - Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929

8. O depresiune serioasa pare improbabila; ne asteptam la redresarea economica in primavara, cu imbunatatire in toamna.

"... a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall." - HES, November 10, 1929

Sfarsitul scaderii bursei nu mai dureaza mult, cateva zile cel mult.

"The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most." - Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929

In cele mai  multe orase din aceasta tara, panica de pe Wall Street nu va avea nici un efect.

"In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect." - Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929

Furtuna financiara a trecut cu siguranta

"Financial storm definitely passed." - Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929

9. Nu vad nimic in situatia actuala ce reprezinta o amenintare sau prevesteste pesimismul. Am toata increderea ca va avea loc o revitalizare a activitatii in primavara, si in anul urmator tara va progresa.

"I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress." - Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929

Sunt convins ca prin aceste masuri am restabilit increderea.

"I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence." - Herbert Hoover, December 1929

1930 va fi un an splendid pentru piata muncii.

"[1930 will be] a splendid employment year." - U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's Forecast, December 1929

10. In viitorul apropiat, cel putin, previziunile pentru actiuni arata bine.

"For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright." - Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930

11. Sunt indicii ca cea mai severa parte a recesiunii a trecut.

"...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..." - Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930

12. Nimic din situatia actuala nu este cauza de ingrijorare.

"There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about." - Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930

13. Primavara lui 1930 marcheaza sfarsitul unei perioade de mari probleme. Companiile Americane revin usor la un nivel normal de prosperitate.

"The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity." - Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930

Previziunile continua sa fie favorabile.

"... the outlook continues favorable..." - HES Mar 29, 1930

14. Previziunile sunt favorabile.
"... the outlook is favorable..." - HES Apr 19, 1930

15. Desi crash-ul a avut loc acum 6 luni, sunt convins ca ce e mai rau a trecut si ca prin eforturi continue si sustinute ne vom reveni rapid. Nu au existat falimente semnificative in banci sau industrie. Acest pericol este acum lasat in urma.

"While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us." - Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930

Pana in mai sau iunie redresara prognozata in publicatiile noastre din decembrie si noiembrie vor deveni clar vizibile.

"...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..."  - HES May 17, 1930

Domnilor ati venit cu 60 zile prea tarziu. Depresiunea s-a incheiat.

"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over." - Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930

16. Miscarile bruste si concurente ale mediului economic vor deschide in scurt timp calea unei redresari sustinute.
"... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..."  - HES June 28, 1930

17. Cea mai grea parte a crizei a trecut (depresiunea)

"... the present depression has about spent its force..." - HES, Aug 30, 1930

18. Suntem acum la sfarsitul recesiunii.

"We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression." - HES Nov 15, 1930

19. Stabilizarea la nivelul actual este evident posibila.

"Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible." - HES Oct 31, 1931

20. Toate casetele de valori au fost sigilate si nu vor fi deschise decat in prezenta unui agent fiscal.

"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S." - President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933